Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 5.388471 6.417018 7.555077 8.903010 10.450990 12.168004 14.211357
2025-03-02 3.542205 4.828813 6.416020 8.496291 11.126660 14.315924 18.446138
2025-03-09 2.562023 3.935160 5.796248 8.451373 12.081384 16.802777 23.327558
2025-03-16 1.890346 3.239287 5.229212 8.286951 12.755373 18.917198 27.896176
2025-03-23 1.574746 2.963018 5.162035 8.753259 14.289442 22.283201 34.419669
2025-03-30 1.271555 2.620606 4.908353 8.864235 15.270222 24.913633 40.101551
2025-04-06 1.027631 2.313004 4.639177 8.882117 16.070502 27.307492 45.594652
2025-04-13 0.833496 2.044653 4.377945 8.853882 16.761951 29.558415 51.010921
2025-04-20 0.761552 2.002305 4.514385 9.526977 18.674374 33.871105 59.925023
2025-04-27 0.659359 1.867537 4.445884 9.806775 19.921581 37.183162 67.456521
2025-05-04 0.581614 1.767725 4.426764 10.169197 21.338179 40.866558 75.818522
2025-05-11 0.486906 1.599673 4.231705 10.152000 22.044028 43.372976 82.365082
2025-05-18 0.386004 1.388122 3.908282 9.842655 22.197309 44.985195 87.618315
2025-05-25 0.297694 1.180628 3.550740 9.405711 22.053472 46.058093 92.030045
2025-06-01 0.245228 1.061626 3.382602 9.358959 22.682517 48.588078 99.183506
2025-06-08 0.197239 0.937558 3.172839 9.180356 23.011140 50.567449 105.456750
2025-06-15 0.180959 0.919649 3.246597 9.689351 24.853836 55.574727 117.589768
2025-06-22 0.154844 0.853536 3.169177 9.810475 25.853030 58.989233 126.922428
2025-06-29 0.130181 0.781903 3.058990 9.830013 26.622452 61.992236 135.637140
2025-07-06 0.108450 0.711990 2.937311 9.799239 27.269137 64.783255 144.091210
2025-07-13 0.104859 0.725904 3.089357 10.532857 29.772169 71.545914 160.630174
2025-07-20 0.093446 0.695653 3.087657 10.837620 31.276647 76.311436 173.458800
2025-07-27 0.084741 0.675361 3.116157 11.232218 33.032456 81.708355 187.801624